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There is a great deal of discussion and speculation about the current stock market. “Where is it headed?” is the question most of us are asking. Well, don’t look to me for precise answers because if I knew, I wouldn’t be writing this entry or doing anything work related for that matter. In fact, the only thing I do know for certain is that no one can predict what will happen in the stock market at this point. Now, more than ever, this holds true.

In the last few years, analysts and investors were able to offer substantive predictions with relative ease. Why? Economic growth was strong, consistent and predictable. Based on macroeconomic data, companies could effectively predict demand increases for their products and services. And with solid demand forecasts, costs and expenses could be budgeted as well. Put them all together and what you have is a well defined profit forecast for the next year.

With credible profit projections, a company’s stock price generally adjusts to fall in line with the industry average PE multiple (price to earnings). The PE multiple for a company is its stock price divided by its earnings per share. PE multiples for an industry are based on an average of PE multiples for all companies in the industry. When a company offers a projected earnings number for the next year, the company’s stock price should adjust to align with the industry average multiple. So in theory, this allows one to not only predict where a company’s stock will be trading at in the future but where the entire market will be trading at. This is because the market is an aggregation of individual stocks. Consider the following example:

Company ABC projects its earnings for 2009 to be $2 per share. If the industry average PE multiple is 15, then ABC’s stock price should reach $30 by year end in order for it to be in line with the industry. So if the current stock price is $20, we can predict a 50 percent increase in stock price over the next year.

In 2009, stock market predictions will be as accurate as those pertaining to a Vegas craps table. There are two reasons for this. First, companies are having a difficult time projecting their earnings. Given that we will likely remain in the throes of the Great Recession, it will be difficult to determine how consumer and corporate spending patterns will react. This will make it challenging to forecast earnings and, consequently, stock prices. Second, investors large and small have been scared away by the recent market tumult and may very likely keep their cash tucked securely under the mattress. It’s unclear when their confidence will be restored and more specifically, when their funds will return to the market.

What we are facing is a paradigm unlike any we have seen in a very long time, if ever. Therefore my prediction for the stock market in 2009 is as follows: it may go up or it may go down.

To explore these and related issues, join us for one of our in-person courses (in major U.S. cities) in Accounting and Financial Statements or Corporate Finance and Valuation, or one of our webinars in Understanding Financial Statements, Financial Analysis, Stocks, Bonds, Options Online - Securities Basics for Lawyer, or Valuation, or one of our On-Demand programs (available 24/7) including our Financial Markets Update, which explains what brought on our current market issues.